Sunday, August 26, 2012

Global Bandwidth Demand & Growth Projection, Facts & Figures


Global Bandwidth Demand & Growth Projection, Facts & Figures

  • ·         Demand for international bandwidth grew 45% in 2011
  • ·         Compounded rate of growth was 57% annually between 2007 and 2011.
  • ·         Aggregate capacity requirements more than doubling every two years
  • ·         The bandwidth associated with core networking doubled every eighteen months.
  • ·         If the current trend continues, then this translates to an increase in traffic of a factor of 10 by 2015 compared to 2010 and by a factor of 100 by 2020.
  • ·         Bandwidth explosion everywhere is being driven by the increase in the number of users, increased access methodologies and rates, and increased services (such as, but not limited to, video on demand, social media, streaming, etc.)
  • ·         Globally, the number of Internet users is forecast to increase from 1.9 billion users in 2010 to 3 billion Internet users in 2015
  • ·         It is forecast that in 2015 there will be nearly 15 billion fixed and mobile networked devices and machine-to-machine connections
  • ·         A 4 time increase in fixed broadband speeds is forecast for 2015, as the average fixed broadband speed of 7 Mb/s in 2010 is expected to rise to 28 Mb/s in 2015
  • ·         By 2015 68 % of all broadband connections are forecast to be at least 5 Mb/s, 40 % will be at least 10 Mb/s, and 3 % will be at least 100 Mb/s
  • ·         By 2015, Traffic per average Internet user will grow from 7.3 gigabyte per month to 24.8 gigabyte per month (more than 3 times)
  • ·         By 2015, Traffic per average Internet household will grow from 17.1 gigabyte per month to 61.8 gigabyte per month (around 4 times)
  • ·         By 2015, Global consumer Internet traffic / applications will have a 34 % compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2010 to 2015 and reach nearly 60 exabytes per month. (1 exabyte is 1018 bytes.)
  • ·         Consumer Internet video will experience a 48 % CAGR from 2010 to 2015 and reach approximately 35 exabytes per month, & Internet video (including video calling) will increase from 40 % to approximately 61 % of all consumer Internet traffic
  • ·         It is forecast that from 2010 to 2015 global IP traffic will experience a 4-fold increase from 20 exabyte per month in 2010 to 81 exabyte per month in 2015, a 32 % CAGR.
  • ·         Mobile data will experience a 92 % CAGR between 2010 and 2015, but still only account for 7.77 % of the overall traffic in 2015
  • ·         Fixed/Wired will experience a 24 % CAGR between 2010 and 2015, and account for 46.1 % of the overall traffic in 2015.
  • ·         Fixed/Wi-Fi® will experience a 39 % CAGR between 2010 and 2015, and account for 46.2 % of all traffic.



Between 2007 and 2011, international bandwidth usage growth region-wise
REGION
Compounded Growth
(annually)
Middle East
98%
Africa
85%
Latin America
71%
Asia
55%
North America
47%
Europe
55%



Capacity Growth
Although international bandwidth usage growth is slower in the mature markets, capacity requirements grew much larger than those of emerging markets:
  • ·         North America’s international bandwidth usage is nearly 10 times greater than that of the entire Middle East
  • ·         Capacity connected to Norway is greater than that connected to all of the countries in Africa.

Reasons of Broadband growth from 2007-2011

Middle East, Africa – primarily due to subscriber growth (doubled to 20m)
Asia – again due to subscription growth (more than doubled to 250 m)
Latin America, Europe, North America – subscription slowed but bandwidth demand is mainly due to increase in average broadband speed and more frequent usage of high-bandwidth applications such as video & Streaming.

Internet users’ growth forecast

REGION
Internet users (Million)
Network Connections (Billion)
North America
288
2.2
Latin America
260
1.3
Western Europe
314
2.3
Central/Eastern Europe
201
0.902
Asia Pacific
1330
5.8
Japan
116
0.727
Middle East & Africa
495
1.3



Fixed network traffic generation comparison due to newer devices w.r.t 32-bit laptop as baseline

Kind of Device
Multiplier
Tablets
1.1
64-bit Laptop
1.9
Internet enables HDTV
2.9
Gaming Console
3.0
Internet Enabled 3DTV
3.2



Growth of broadband speeds by region

REGION
2010 (Mb/s)
2015 (Mb/s)
Growth Factor
North America
7.5
27
3.7
Latin America
2.8
8
2.9
Western Europe
9.2
36
3.9
Central/Eastern Europe
6.1
20
3.3
Asia Pacific
5.5
25
4.6
Japan
15.5
64
4.1
Middle East & Africa
2.8
7
2.5

  

2015 IP traffic forecast

REGION
IP Traffic (Exabyte per month)
Growth Factor since 2012 (CAGR)
North America
22.3
3x  (26%)
Latin America
4.7
7x  (48%)
Western Europe
18.9
4x  (32%)
Central/Eastern Europe
3.7
5x  (39%)
Asia Pacific
24.1
4x  (35%)
Japan
4.8
3x   (27%)
Middle East & Africa
2.0
8x   (52%)


 Manjunath M Gowda

(Source: Tele Geography & IEEE & various other credible sources across the net)

Sunday, August 19, 2012

“Bandwidth cost is Cheap” – be careful when you say this!!


“Bandwidth cost is Cheap” – be careful when you say this!! - The ABCD of Net Access, costing and how it works in India

Most people think based on what they get at home – that’s the only way of knowing the access, the pricing and of course the speed – their home broadband. Generally at office you do access internet but don’t have a clue on the speed or the costing. Unless of course you are the CIO or CxO or the network in charge at an enterprise and you probably know much more on how costing and speed at various levels and all that is. Nevertheless this is for all to understand how really internet works across the globe and what are the pricing points and what are “different miles” and how does they all add up as far as costing is concerned and how will it all play in the near future and how does it affect your internet experience and what you pay at the end of the month or quarter or year.

Internet or broadband or bandwidth as they call actually is generally made up of “three miles”. The last mile or the retail mile is that part of the end that we all sit on it or what at home (or enterprise) we order and check our speeds too (remember when you check the speed you probably are connecting to another server which is within the country, city, local region). This end is very competitive in India currently with many players but will not remain so for long as many me-too players will drop off, more regulations from government and of course cannot burn the cash all the time and need to be profitable too at the end of the day. In many other countries unlike India, this retail market remains very expensive as it remains dominated by a single large player or a cartel.

The second part or the second mile is called as the “middle mile” – the point at which internet traffic enters and leaves a country.

The last part (not really last) which is popularly known as the “First Mile”  is where all the $$$ flows and the action happens J This is what is the most distant from the end consumer and is the global network of submarine cables which is beyond the national boundaries and whose rates have never dropped in the last few years. It is this segment that is the least competitive as far as the prices are concerned and you will see very soon (or read soon J) in the next paragraphs on how it will shape and which probably ill define how you are going to pay for your bandwidth and what kind of service and speed you can really expect out of it.
These are the cables that extend under the sea across Singapore, Persian gulf, our bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, across Suez Canal, Western Europe and the Pacific and the Atlantic.

These First mile are less in number and in few countries there is only one and hence prices are rocket high. Thankfully in India due to the structure and due to the cables owned by Tatas, Reliance (FLAG) and Bharti and of course the control of TRAI, the costs are reasonable to cheaper per say compared to many other countries across Africa, Middle East and even in South America.

But there is another item which plays spoil sport in the whole availability and pricing for India. This is the Middle Mile which was mentioned earlier. In India we call this as the cable landing station. These stations are the key points through which submarine cables cross into Indian mainland. These are the stations to which our telecom operators, broadband & ISP providers pay to get connected to rest of the world. These charges are very expensive and adds up to the total high cost you end up paying to your provider for a very good speed across the borders (not just within the country or within the last mile which most home owners buy).
In India we have 12 such cable landing stations located at different parts of the country with half of them in Mumbai through which all of India connects with the rest of the world. It is with these providers domestic operators buy bandwidth on an international submarine cable. Tata has 5 such stations and owns 56% of the market, Bharti has two stations and owns 37% of the market. Because of the lay of the market and number of players (or lack of it), the price is pretty much controlled by them and they needless to say charge a huge amount of money and this has not reduced at all over the last four years and there are no signs of that reducing at all in the years to come (unless I & you decide to lay cables across the oceans – wow – that’s a nice project – is there a cable on the cloud J J ). This costing actually contributes around 56% of the total bandwidth costs to any company. These charges are far cheaper in many developed nations and as an example Singapore cost might be say $2500 to $3500 per year as compared to India where we have to pay $150,000 (charged by Reliance) per year to $700,000 (charged by Bharti).

You get the point now. The overall bandwidth costs are dependent on three parts, the charge for the local loop, the landing station costs and the submarine cable costs. In some countries one is cheaper than the other and in others some are way too expensive than the other but your overall expense somehow ends up on the higher side if you really need a good bandwidth with a good speed not just local but across the sea too!!

Considering how all these works out, and how it depends on many parts and players, be careful when you say next “Bandwidth is Cheap”, my next question will be “Which part” J

Some Facts of Costing:

It costs around 40 times to 60 times in say many African countries per mbps per month, and 4 times in South American countries to 20 times in Middle East to 30 times in few Asian counties compared to US rates.

Manjunath M Gowda, CEO i7 Networks – Bandwidth Analytics 2.0

Thursday, August 16, 2012

8 IT Lessons Learned From the 2012 Summer Olympics & the value of Network Bandwidth Analytics

8 IT Lessons Learned From the 2012 Summer Olympics & the value of Network Bandwidth Analytics


The title is same as the one which got recently published in the CIO.com . It was a great article and let me summarize the same and explain how it will play out in the future and explain how bandwidth analytics will play a huge role in the days to come and how i7 networks product i7 EagleEye can actually take advantage of it.
1. Business Intelligence Can Expose Data in New Ways
Analytics can help viewers predict who might win the bronze, silver or gold for an event. It is the convergence of social networking with business intelligence captures the power of crowds to speed decisions.

 2. Keep an Eye on Networks during Online Broadcasts

One employee watching a high-definition stream of the Olympics can consume as much as 30 percent of a T1 line. These attributes adds to the direct cost of the bandwidth to the company. This is going only north now. This year YouTube channel alone views doubled to 53 million. Think how future will be? Can you imagine who needs a network bandwidth analytics tool? Pretty much every enterprise, irrespective of its size or location, and pretty much every household too in the very near future.

3. Social Networking Can Cripple GPS Services

During one event in London, fans tweeting about a bicycle race interfered with network operations. The interruption meant broadcasters could not provide GPS-enabled information about the speed and location of the riders. Network experts believe that this problem could have been prevented using network management software that puts a specific limit to activity on a particular website (including Twitter). For CIOs, the lesson is in making sure there is a contingency plan to keep a network up and running.

4. Stress-test Your Website With the Cloud

Simulations can help prevent disasters on the networks and bandwidths. London Olympic Organizing Committee used cloud testing software to simulate up to 1 billion people accessing the site from every country across the globe. This kind of stress test is going to be norm very soon and those who have invested in it, there lies a billion dollar opportunity for you.

5. Plan for Mass Deployments and Training

Stress test alone won’t do it but needs to test with various network devices and all sorts of devices like ipads, iphones, other smartphones, tablets, laptops etc etc With a array of devices all network enabled, such a test is a must and again analytics w.r.t different devices becomes paramount.

6. Protect Lost or Stolen Devices

Such an event can result in hundred thousands of devices being lost and this is happening irrespective of such large events and most phones, tablets etc lost are business related and encryption of data, DLP , locating stolen/lost devices – such services and products suddenly will also become an billion dollar opportunity. Protecting just the network endpoints alone will not suffice but data needs to be protected too.

7. Avoid Potential High-Profile Scams

Major events such as this Olympics breed major scamming efforts and people can fall prey to new social engineering attacks. Anyone working on such solutions has huge opportunities. Yet again bandwidth analytics can play a huge role here if it can categorize such attacks and even log it for forensics. 

8. Beef Up Data Center Capacity

Before any such a high-profile event make sure your data center can handle the onslaught. Data centers need to be high availability, multi region, multi site and such data centers will be of high demand in days to come.

i7 EagleEye can provide not only complete usage statistics of the bandwidth but also 120 other parameters with a customizable dashboard , alerts setting, both real time and retro analysis and reports. Very soon complete user based info (we already do IP based) along with device based info (be it smartphones like iPhone, androids etc. or tablets like iPads) with complete video classification to very granular sub-classification will be provided (in the next release). With EagleEye we can take a stab at 1, 2 & 3 above.

Manjunath M Gowda, i7 Networks 

Monday, August 13, 2012

How a BPO or a KPO can immensely benefit from Network bandwidth Analytics and Live reporting


How a BPO or a KPO can immensely benefit from Network bandwidth Analytics and Live reporting



This is more of a personal experience of what we saw and how our tool i7 EagleEye can help BPO, KPO and other such ITES companies where there is a need for superior analytics & metrics, for need of real time live data, for regulation and for compliance purpose and to make sure that data does not leak the premises in any way  – the complete analytics and of course both live/real time and also for retrospective analysis (for Forensics – in case there was a leak and to see where and how and who did it).

Typically they have a shared environment where all terminal servers and dumb terminals are connected to a server and are used by multiple people in shifts and also people need to log into them using user. In this kind of a shared setup, metrics and forensics and reporting based on user-id which becomes super critical more than IP based reporting. Due to the nature of business and the criticality and the sensitivity of the data on which they work, a very strict monitoring is required and they love live real time analysis, graphs and charts and complete log of bandwidth usage & other 100+ metrics per user basis and also per IP basis as well as application basis too. Also if some leak of data does happen, they also do need a thorough forensics analysis from the logged data from whatever time frame to whatever time frame they wish or the time frame when such a leak happened. They don’t usually allow any social media or video streaming or any such access nor any smartphones or tablets but employees always find a new way in today’s world to access and the company IT wants a tool which can even track such a breakage or even attempts to such access.

In almost all enterprise setups (and most typical enterprise setups across the industry & verticals) to make sure that you don’t depend on just one internet connection or provider (fail over and high availability), you have multiple connections from multiple vendors which are aggregated via a WAN Aggregator. Enterprises like to see metrics such as bandwidth usage per vendor basis, per connection, separate dashboard for each connection, their utilization reports, etc. which helps them to do projections, sizing, scaling (up or down) for budgeting & capacity planning and is something i7 EagleEye will provide. This helps them tremendously to plan their new bandwidth allocation as they grow and also to allocate budgets in their financial planning.

EagleEye will also providing the new gen analytics which includes recognition and bandwidth usage of all smartphones, tablets including per user basis which includes all of iPhones, iPads, android based smartphones, tablets etc. Also provides complete usage of video bandwidth with sub-categories such as how much bandwidth was used by educational videos versus entertainment videos versus say sports etc. Another dimension that we are adding is the support of live streaming and reporting with sub-classification of the same as we are doing for video.

New generation firewalls do give reports but they cannot give 100+ metrics in such a granular level and also cannot give live in real time reports but these are what the BPOs, KPOs and such ITES companies like to see. Of course it is not prudent to expect firewalls to report at such a granular level as firewalls are meant to do firewall work and one needs to get a specialized device which are meant for those activities.

Manju @ i7 networks!!
i7 Networks – “NextGen Bandwidth Analytics Company”