Sunday, August 26, 2012

Global Bandwidth Demand & Growth Projection, Facts & Figures


Global Bandwidth Demand & Growth Projection, Facts & Figures

  • ·         Demand for international bandwidth grew 45% in 2011
  • ·         Compounded rate of growth was 57% annually between 2007 and 2011.
  • ·         Aggregate capacity requirements more than doubling every two years
  • ·         The bandwidth associated with core networking doubled every eighteen months.
  • ·         If the current trend continues, then this translates to an increase in traffic of a factor of 10 by 2015 compared to 2010 and by a factor of 100 by 2020.
  • ·         Bandwidth explosion everywhere is being driven by the increase in the number of users, increased access methodologies and rates, and increased services (such as, but not limited to, video on demand, social media, streaming, etc.)
  • ·         Globally, the number of Internet users is forecast to increase from 1.9 billion users in 2010 to 3 billion Internet users in 2015
  • ·         It is forecast that in 2015 there will be nearly 15 billion fixed and mobile networked devices and machine-to-machine connections
  • ·         A 4 time increase in fixed broadband speeds is forecast for 2015, as the average fixed broadband speed of 7 Mb/s in 2010 is expected to rise to 28 Mb/s in 2015
  • ·         By 2015 68 % of all broadband connections are forecast to be at least 5 Mb/s, 40 % will be at least 10 Mb/s, and 3 % will be at least 100 Mb/s
  • ·         By 2015, Traffic per average Internet user will grow from 7.3 gigabyte per month to 24.8 gigabyte per month (more than 3 times)
  • ·         By 2015, Traffic per average Internet household will grow from 17.1 gigabyte per month to 61.8 gigabyte per month (around 4 times)
  • ·         By 2015, Global consumer Internet traffic / applications will have a 34 % compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2010 to 2015 and reach nearly 60 exabytes per month. (1 exabyte is 1018 bytes.)
  • ·         Consumer Internet video will experience a 48 % CAGR from 2010 to 2015 and reach approximately 35 exabytes per month, & Internet video (including video calling) will increase from 40 % to approximately 61 % of all consumer Internet traffic
  • ·         It is forecast that from 2010 to 2015 global IP traffic will experience a 4-fold increase from 20 exabyte per month in 2010 to 81 exabyte per month in 2015, a 32 % CAGR.
  • ·         Mobile data will experience a 92 % CAGR between 2010 and 2015, but still only account for 7.77 % of the overall traffic in 2015
  • ·         Fixed/Wired will experience a 24 % CAGR between 2010 and 2015, and account for 46.1 % of the overall traffic in 2015.
  • ·         Fixed/Wi-Fi® will experience a 39 % CAGR between 2010 and 2015, and account for 46.2 % of all traffic.



Between 2007 and 2011, international bandwidth usage growth region-wise
REGION
Compounded Growth
(annually)
Middle East
98%
Africa
85%
Latin America
71%
Asia
55%
North America
47%
Europe
55%



Capacity Growth
Although international bandwidth usage growth is slower in the mature markets, capacity requirements grew much larger than those of emerging markets:
  • ·         North America’s international bandwidth usage is nearly 10 times greater than that of the entire Middle East
  • ·         Capacity connected to Norway is greater than that connected to all of the countries in Africa.

Reasons of Broadband growth from 2007-2011

Middle East, Africa – primarily due to subscriber growth (doubled to 20m)
Asia – again due to subscription growth (more than doubled to 250 m)
Latin America, Europe, North America – subscription slowed but bandwidth demand is mainly due to increase in average broadband speed and more frequent usage of high-bandwidth applications such as video & Streaming.

Internet users’ growth forecast

REGION
Internet users (Million)
Network Connections (Billion)
North America
288
2.2
Latin America
260
1.3
Western Europe
314
2.3
Central/Eastern Europe
201
0.902
Asia Pacific
1330
5.8
Japan
116
0.727
Middle East & Africa
495
1.3



Fixed network traffic generation comparison due to newer devices w.r.t 32-bit laptop as baseline

Kind of Device
Multiplier
Tablets
1.1
64-bit Laptop
1.9
Internet enables HDTV
2.9
Gaming Console
3.0
Internet Enabled 3DTV
3.2



Growth of broadband speeds by region

REGION
2010 (Mb/s)
2015 (Mb/s)
Growth Factor
North America
7.5
27
3.7
Latin America
2.8
8
2.9
Western Europe
9.2
36
3.9
Central/Eastern Europe
6.1
20
3.3
Asia Pacific
5.5
25
4.6
Japan
15.5
64
4.1
Middle East & Africa
2.8
7
2.5

  

2015 IP traffic forecast

REGION
IP Traffic (Exabyte per month)
Growth Factor since 2012 (CAGR)
North America
22.3
3x  (26%)
Latin America
4.7
7x  (48%)
Western Europe
18.9
4x  (32%)
Central/Eastern Europe
3.7
5x  (39%)
Asia Pacific
24.1
4x  (35%)
Japan
4.8
3x   (27%)
Middle East & Africa
2.0
8x   (52%)


 Manjunath M Gowda

(Source: Tele Geography & IEEE & various other credible sources across the net)

No comments:

Post a Comment